Thursday, November 18, 2010

Facts and Factoids about Civil Wars, Thoughtful Thursday

Thoughtful Thursday James Fearon, "Iraq's Civil War" in Foreign Affairs March April 2007, Volume 86 Issue Two and the Wikipedia article on Civil wars.

  1. There have been 125 civil wars since the end of World War II--as defined as those leading to over a thousand dead.
  2. Another 104 civil wars occurred between 1816 and 1997.
  3. Ninety of the Post World War II civil wars killed more than one thousand per year.
  4. Nine Civil wars since World War II have killed sixty-thousand or more. These include Iraq. They also include Algeria, Colombia, Guatemala, Peru and Sri LAnka.
  5. Twenty civl wars were ongoing as of 2007.
  6. According to Fearon, the average civil war has been ten years with a median of seven years. Wikipedia has the number at four years.
  7. From 1900 to 1944, civil wars only lasted 1.5 years. They occurred just as frequently as after 1944, just lasted less time.
  8. Since 1945, civil wars killed 25 million people.
  9. 55 of these civil wars were fought to control a central government.
  10. The remainder were fought for secession (like Biafra or the United States) or regional autonomy.
  11. Of the civil wars fought to control a government, 40% of the time the government crushed the rebels. 35% of the time the rebels won. Sixteen percent ended up in a pwer sharing agreement.
  12. Most civil wars are fought in a guerilla fashion and are rural. Thus, the United States model of organized armies fielded by states is unusual.
  13. Paul Collier and Anke Hoeffler, for the World Bank, argued that civil wars are primarily motivated by economic desires rather than identity issues. However identity issues did become important, and were a source to restart the conflict. I will report more on their work in a later Thoughtful Thursday.
  14. Having commodity exports dramatically increases the chance of civil war. A country with one-third of its gross product being commodities has a twenty percent chance of getting a civil war in a five-year period. Those countries lacking exportable commodities are spared the risk of civil war. (The tendency to create conflicts is part, but not all, of the resource course)
  15. And if there is a national diaspora, that dramatically increases (up to six times) the chance of a civil war. The diaspora finances the war. They are also likely to cause a flare up of the civil war, as the diaspora would often be nursing a grievance. (I had pointed out the possibility of giving the diaspora an explicit vote and say in my article on participatory-style Palestinian-Israeli Peace settlement.)
  16. If there is a ethnic group which has a majority with minority ethnic groups, then there is more chance of a civil war as the minority might feel oppressed.

James Fearon argues that power sharing requires that both sides be cohesive and that there is a group or set of leaders which truly speak for the side, rather than there being a group of militias or war lords.

The purpose of Mr. Fearon's article is to discuss Iraq situation in particular. But the wonderful statistics on the civil war phenomena and tragedy are why I am reviewing it here. Some of the data comes from the Wikipedia article.

Several weeks ago, I proposed a Constitution Construction Kit. The ratification procedure takes into account ethnic identity, so each group is and feels protected. Votes can use a similar principle--to pass legislation, one needs a certain percentage of the votes from each ethnic group. Or where there are several choices, the winner will be the choice that has the largest minima over all ethnic groups. Fact Sixteen shows this is sometimes a problem, but by no means the dominant factor in predicting ethnic conflicts. Forming a world government has much of the same problem as the world certainly has point-source resources unequally distributed.

Sunday, November 14, 2010

Israel Palestinian Peace Talk Participatory Style

Let's not rely on negotiations between one pair of leaders or negotiating teams. Different pairs of people, groups of both Israeli and Palestinians randomly selected, sets of academics all make proposals. And then both Palestinians and Israelis vote on which proposal they like the most. The one that gets the max of the minima of the Israeli votes and the vote. Of course, if no proposal gets 50% of the votes from both the Israelis and the Palestinians, then nothing happens. (A null proposal also can be added to explicitly see if either side just prefers to do nothing. )

proposalIsraeli approval percentagePalestinian Approval percentqage
a5458
b5751
c5262
d6153
Here proposal a win's. It's minimum is 54 and that is more than the minima of b, c, d respectively (51, 52 and 53) respectively.

Following in the spirit of the X-Prize, the individuals making the proposal that wins, gets a few million dollars.

Of course, there are questions should there be three separate votes, the Gaza groups, the West bank and the Israeli's. Do those Palestinians who fled in 1949 and who are now living far away get to vote? If then, perhaps Israelis might say the Jewish diaspora, including those who may be several-generations American-citizens and residents, get to vote. There is certainly no reason that one could not do this with five or more groups.

proposalIsraeli Approval Percentage Gaza Approval percentageWest Bank Approval PercentageJewish DiasporaPalestinian Diaspora
a5458574952
b5751604856
c5262635557
d6153556048
e7251556354
a, c and d could not win since they have one percentage below fifty percent. Thsat leave c with a min of 52% and e with a minima of 51. So c wins!

The proposals would include of course several two-state solutions as well as one-state solutions. The Constitution Construction Kit would be used to allow the Palestinian voters and the Jewish voters to construct and try to see if they could live as one country.

Simulated Annealing or Hill Climbing

We can assume that there might be several proposals that might attract close to 50%, or better, of each group. Can we tweak them to get a better proposal. We can allow slight variations in a few items, for example, swapping a little bit of land here for a little bit of land there. And see if the amended proposal does better than the proposal. In the spirit of simulated annealing, big changes, and new proposals are allowed at first. Those proposals that have good agreement from parties, get tweaked. Then, these get tweaked by a lesser amount. We only take the tweaks that give a better min max than the base proposal.

The X-Prize Approach

Of course, simulated annealing conflicts with the X-Prize approach. Does a a party making a proposal that gets tweaked quite a bit entitled to the prize? A participatory democracy approach would be that the Quartet would put $25,000,000 in escrow. If and when a proposal passes, the people would then have another election to decide who gets the prize. In the spirit of Wait 'til we really know what you are worth, the first partition would be for two million of the $25,000,000.00. The remainder should be awarded twenty years later when we see that the peace really was stable!

The Literature on Civil Wars

The literature on civil wars shows that sometimes or often both sides have to exhaust each other more before one or both sides is willing to concede... (Foreign Affairs, 2007, Volume 86, Issue Two, Page Two, James D. Fearon, "Iraq's Civil War"--which has some great statistics information on civil wars in general and I will make a Thoughtful Thursday.)

A closing note based on a wonderful NPR Story

A conventionally-negotiated peace deal requires on the leaders having the courage to "take it back to their people and see if they can sell it." The participatory-democracy approach means that there are many proposals and the people can vote on the ones they want. Mr. Miller, who was at the Camp David talks, says don't go to a high level summit if both sides are not ready.

Thursday, November 11, 2010

Wally Smith on Range Voting, Thoughtful Thursday

Range Votting by Warren D. Smith (2004)

Dr Smith identified a class of voting systems where each voter is asked to send back a vector (one number per candidate). The vectors are summed. The candidate whose corresponding number is largest wins.

Many of the voting systems others have discussed are of this category. They each restrict what kind of vector get sent back. Assume, there are three candidates, B, N and G

In conventional voting, each voter simply sends back a one for a single candidate. That is each person has to vote for either B, N and G. thus, we may have the votes

BNG
100
100
010
001
001
100
SUM312
Here the winner is B with three votes. Conventional voting allows a vote to be split. There have been several elections where write-in candidates won or split the vote, not just the recent Alaska Senatorial election. IN 1836, the Whigs ran two candidates including Benjamin Harrison for President in a bald-faced but unsuccessful attempt to split the vote. Of course Benjamin Harrison was elected President in 1840 but was to die shortly thereafter.

Then, there is approval voting. Here, each vector is still limited to zeros and ones. However, we allow the voter to enter as many one's as they care to. In the above election, we might have.

BNG
100
110
010
001
011
110
SUM342
Here N might have been the second choice of many voters. The approval voting system seems to give a better result. There was a book on approval voting by Dr. Steven Brams and Peter Fishburn, which I will review in a later Thoughtful Thursday.

Then, there is the Borda voting, where each person gives a rank ordering. And we count a first place as one more than a second-place vote. In a three-way election, we will have the numbers zero, one and two with two going to our first choice.;

BNG
201
012
012
210
211
012
SUM657
Here, G wins, even though N is practically everybody's second choice.

Range voting gives everybody the most expressiveness. Everyone can put any number between zero and one. (Actually, one can set up range voting with any defined range, say zero to ten like in the Olympics.) Question for the reader--why don't we allow to the voter to put any number without restricting them to a range.

There are other voting systems that one can use. However, they have the disadvantage as the algorithm has to store all the votes. The above types of systems which Dr. Smith calls COAF total, can just work with the totals. I wrote about some of them earlier. Some of them take exponential computer time just to find out who won. Also, each voting machine has to send all the votes to the main office so it can find out the winner. COAF systems are better, the voting machine can send the totals for each candidate to the central machine. That would add the subtotals to find out who won.

Range voting gets out of a lot of the paradoxes and problems in voting theorems. Both Arrow and Gibbard assumed that voters have to give a ranking. In range-voting, each voter provides real numbers.

I have seen several descriptions of Arrow's famous impossibility theorem. I like Dr. Smith's explanation the best (which he attributes to Dr. Fishburn). Each voter gives a ranking of all the voters. My job as a programmer is to write a program that takes the set of ranks and generates a ranking of the candidates. (Of course, in an election for a single senator or governor, we only need to know who won, we don't need to know who the first loser is.) I can write the program anyway I want, but I have to obey the following rules. Arrow also assumed that I have a finite number of voters. (Of course, I question whether the thing might go away with a huge number of voters and) where the probability of a manipulation goes down with the cube of the number of voters.)

In any event, I cannot write an algorithm that fulfills all of these conditions.

  1. There is a finite number of voters--obviously. in an election with three (or more) candidates.
  2. If all voters agree than one candidate is better than the other will that candidate come out ahead
  3. Let there be two sets of V voters each and we run the algorithm in (two parallel universities). Only one voter differs between the two universes. However, they both rank candidates B more than G but rearrange their choices for other candiates. The algorithm should both rank B more than G (or the other way around). This is that the final result should not be affected by how voters behave on irrelevant alternatives. Thus if B wins, if everyone rearranged their choices ranked beledow B, it shouldn't change the fact that B has won. (I have seen some argue that this is not an important criteria.)
  4. We also don't allow me to write a dictator solution. That is, I can't just copy one person's choices and ignore everyone else's choices.

Dr. Smith programmed what I would consider the obvious simulation. Some voters are honest. That is they simply send in their utility. Others try to game the system. Dr. Smith calls them rational. They are simply the people who will vote the lesser of two evils. That is those who would prefer N to win but who look at the polls would vote for B or G.

He generated random sets of preferences for candidates. Then he simulates each of them and see how preferred the candidates for each voting system. The honest voters vote their preference. The dishonest (or "rational") voters look at the polling data and vote the way that they think will give them the best possible candidate. (Dr. Smith also includes some nice results for the probability that one's vote will affect the outcome for various models.)

Dr. Smith tried 144 scenarios and in all of them range voting was the one that selected a candidate that made people, on average, the happiest. (I should add that Dr. Smith's papers on voting system are full of wonderful details and arguments and are a joy to read. I urge all to go to his home page and read his political science papers--he also writes papers on a wide variety of topics unrelated to politics.)

Sunday, November 7, 2010

State Clawbacks; dealing with high pensions and salaries

New York State is suffering from a ten-billion budget short fall out of 130 billion total budget. Yet its retirement funds are bleeding money to those most New Yorkers would consider unworthy of their pension. On the top of that list are corrupt officials (*):
  1. The Former state Comptroller Alan Hevesi bringing home $105,221
  2. Joseph Bruno, $96,085.00, convicted of eight counts of corruption. He was New York Sate Senate majority leader.
  3. Guy Velella, $75,012, pleaded guilty of bribery, indicted for twenty-five counts. He was a state repres. and state senator to over thirty years.
But there are many others who earn outrageous pensions.

a firefighter receives $74,624 in disability pension money and is a fighter in martial arts championshps. 84% of New York city firefighters who retire do so as a disability. One problem is that any firefighter who worked at the 9/11 sight and who has a heart or lung problem is legally presumed related. (I have observed many disabled, whether a military disability, mental illnesses, an individual who worked as an executive chef who contracted emphesema . We have had interesting political discussions. Certainly, even if a firefighter might no longer be able to go into burning buildings, he could work in a participatory democracy sortition jury to help supervise firefighters.)

In New York City, eight thousand employees of the transit system earn over one hundred thousand dollarz per year. Twenty Five percent of the The Long Island RailRoad and the Metro North that serves the Northern suburbs of New York earn six figures. Another problem is the payout of unused sick leave upon retirement. The State of Illinois eliminated this give back but the the faculty and other employees who started last century still have a payout, sometimes hefty, coming to them. Sixty percent of the transportation expenditures are payroll as compared to the eighty percent in the social service and education fields.

Our Mayor, Michael Bloomberg, said that he would handle the budget crisis by freezing salaries--the alternative being lay offs. At my University, the Union agreed to a salary freeze and many other cities. So far, fortunately, there has not been one lay off. But the New York City teachers, and I believe our faculty, will still get promotion raises and other uch raises as specified in the contract. In New York City, that is still 3.3 increase in salaries.

Chicago's Commuter Railroad, Metra, has G. Richard Tidwell earning 1.25 million in salary, bonus and benefits, a deputy executive director. And 18.4 percent of the work force made more than $100,000 dollars last year. Note that in New York City, the average pension for police and fire fighters is $62,208 and the average for all others is $25,947.00.

But these are contractual agreements--is there anything that can be done? More importantly we should not pick on government workers. I think most would agree that some teachers, transit workers, and government employees of all stripes have been hard working and definitely deserve every dollar of their pension. And there are political issues in attacking government workers who quite reasonably have strong lobbies and political action groups (both capital and lower case letters).

But we all realize there are lazy doctors, financial advisors who earned a lot of money and did not achieve much of substance. They are retired well whether from savings or pensions without earning that retirement.

Similar to handling executives and financial entrepreneurs, the answer is a clawback. The State go after those who arned over a million dollars total or who worked for the State's citizens for over thirty years. This could be those who worked for the State, a government agencies, or who worked in a position where there primary responsibility was serving those living in the State. A State does not want to go after executives who live or work in the state but primarily serve others. Thus, New York State does not want to tax Wall Street Investment Bankers--they would just leave, and the money to pay their salaries comes mostly from outside the State, and it would put New York's financial sector at a competitive disadvantage.. However, there is no reason not to tax the New York City area Distribution Manager for the beer company.

A person who purposefully does business in a State like working there or having a position such as head of distribution for that State for many years has met the "minimum contacts test" as required by the Constitution. (International Shoe Co. vs. Washington 326 U. S. 310 (1945))

States cannot reduce pensions as these are a contract and cutting them would involve the Contracts clause in the Constitution. However, that can be avoided by the tax proposed.

  1. Michael M. Grynbaum, "239,00 conductor Among M.T.A's 8000 Six figure Workers" The New York Times page A 30, June Third 2010
  2. Jennifer Medina, "Mayor to Cancel Teacher's Raises, Averting Layoffs" The New York Times June Third 2010,CLIX No 55,060, Page A1 and A30.
  3. (*) AM New York June 17th 2010, Page Four
  4. "finally cracking down" New York Post Page 20, august 7 2010, (editorial)

Tuesday, November 2, 2010

Miscellaneous

A concern is who drafts the law, whether in a conventional democracy or a particpatory one. The American Legislative Exchange Council (ALEc), has corporations and state legislators as members. The corporations pay a total of six million dollars a year. They hold three annual conferences wehre companies present 'model bills' to the legilators. ALEC gives "scholarships" to the legislators to attend. The recent Arizona Immigration law was put together by corporations including Correction Corporation of America. NPR questioned whether ALEC should be treated as non-profit or a lobbying organization. Wikipedia, as usual, has a good article on ALEC. However, one should compare organizations such aas the National Conference of Commisions on Uniform State Laws that among other things is responsible for the Uniform Commercial Code, passed in all fifty states.

California Proposition 23 would suspend its greenhouse gas emissions law until the jobless rate falls to 5.5 per cen Valero Oil and owns several refineries in California and has contriubted five million dollars. Tesoro Energy is also contributing. However, in spite of the business money going to support the measure, Polls say that the greenhouse law will remain and the proposition to delay it will not pass. Of course, we know that the solution to the problem is a consumption and sortition based tax. They don't form pollution havens where all businesses relocate to the country with the least environmental restrictions.

In Brazil, voters can vote at age sixteen, a rarity. Fewer than half now choose to vote--when the youth first got the vote early, they were very excited.. On the subject of Brazil, Planet Money had a wonderful piece on how they solved their inflation of eighty per cent. Four College students were called in by the Minister of Finance to help control Inflation. They developed a "Unit of Real Value" It was parallel with the prices in the currency that was inflating. So everyone saw that each day widget was one URV. What changed was that one day a URL was ten cruzeiro's, the next twenty. Eventually, the government just declared that the URV was the real currency. A psychological trick, that worked and enabled the many accomplishemnts of which Brazil can be most proud.

Of course, could one get the same psychological affect by freezing and numbering the money supply.

We talked about Brazil and some other countrie's programs of participatory budgeting where the voters get to choose how some of the money is spent. My home state Illinois has a candidate for Governor on the "Independent" party. He is calling for particpatory democracy for part of the State budget.

My Chinese teacher was giving us the word for finance. (I have just started taking Chinese.) It contains the character for "bug" or "worm." I have blogged extensively about the financial system and whether we need one.

An educational toy and products company is having problems with its rock collection. Some of the minerals contain some lead. He is part of the set of business owners that are turning against the democrats--and an example of the complaints against stupid regulations. One of the ones I heard was about the requirements for having accessible drinking fountains. The plumbing code has rules about this. One might say these are too detailed. And they are ambiguous. And eHow has a somewhat different set. If one should inadvertently install a drinking fountain a little too high or a little too low, should one have to reinstall it? Oh and New York City Council voted to require all water fountains to be set up to fill up a water bottle; this is to give less money to the bottled water industry. I recall somebody complained that he inadvertently made his water fountains one inch too low for the Americans Disabilities Act regulations. He had to pay to have them all raised one inch. I wasn't able to find it by searching for it.
(Wall Street Journal October 12th 2010, CCLVII, NO 87., Elizabeth Williamson, "Business Backlash Grows"

Thursday, October 28, 2010

Peter Elkan, Adjustment of Sectors to stop pay-cost inflation, thoughtful thursday

The New Model Economy: Economic Inventions for the Rest of the Century, by Peter G. Elkan, pergamon Press, Oxford, New York, etc. 1982, HD82 E485 1982

(I promised a review of this when I wrote up Kenneth Boulding's review of this book.)

To prevent pay-cost inflation, the salaries negotiated by unions and management and individuals and management should be adjusted. They would be adjusted to equal the amount agreed upon. Thus, each union would negotiate a pay increase in the normal manner. The total pay would be added up and compared with the target figure. Then, each pay would be adjusted to the following. This can be done by the total pay, which means that some people might receive a decrease in total pay.

And it can be done by the increase, which Dr. Elkan suggests is more politically feasible. Here is a simple example. Society agrees that the average pay increase is two per cent. Half of the population (group A) negotiates a 2.5 percent increase.. Other half of the population (group B) negotiates a 3.0 increase. The adjustment factor is 4/5.5. Group A gets an increase of 1.81% and group B gets an increase of 2.11.

In the United States and Britain, union agreements are made throughout the year. Dr. Elkan is concerned that unions should not wait until the end of the year to find out what increase they would get with thei ncrease delayed-- int he same manner that a worker with high deductions on their income tax would have to wait until the following April for their tax refund. Thus, he proposes that all pay go through a central computer and the adjustment made on a running basis. (That might not have been practical in 1980 when he proposed it but it is with modern computers.)

He was concerned about pay-cost inflation, when each union tries to leapfrog other unions in negotiating a salary. And trade unions are so used to insisting upon regular increases, that they do so past the point of productivity growth. When this causes inflation, the unions try to leapfrog the inflation by asking for a cost of living increase that includes what they fear will be a runup in prices. (NPR Planet Money talked on another approach to dealing with the psychological factor in inflation on the price side that worked in Brazil which I will cover in another blog post.) And of course, there is the Share Economy solution--on the pay side, suggested by Dr. Weitzman and expanded by myself.

Certainly, one could organize an economy and political system where the voters vote on the amount transferred frmo each major sector to another, corporations to investors, corporations to labor, etc.

However, the same thing can be effected by tax policies. The increases that Dr. Elkan is trying to control are less than the tax bill. The people could vote ont he amount of taxes paid by each sector. This could be adjusted, at least in part, by the increase of that sector relative to desires. There is an empirical question. Would the voters best think about the magnitude of each flow in the macr economy. In my Intermediate macroeconomics course, we started with a circulation model showing the flows from economy part to economy part. Or, would the voters just say this sector is too big, this sector is too small, adjust the taxes higher in the big sectors, adjust the taxes lower in the smaller sectors. (If needed, one could have modify the reverse flow, payments to corporations that provide services to the federal government, if it was desired to send more money to the corporations.) Dr. Elkan cited Sir Roy Harrod in 1965 for using the taxes to adjust the distribution to sectors.

And whether we structure the adjustment by the sector-to-sector flow or by taxes, the demos can vote using median voting for the adjustment. That is everyone would say that the total amount payed out by corporations to their investors should be x1, x2, x3, etc. And the median is the amount that would be used.

Thursday, October 21, 2010

Constitution Construction Kit, Harel State Chart, Yunker Federal World Government, Thoughtful Thursday

Fairly frequently, countries try to change their constitution. A committee drafts a constitution and the people have two choices, to ratify it or not.

Examples include:

  1. Italy presented to its voters a complicated constitution that was rejected.
  2. The European Union presented a new constitution that would increase the Union but it was rejected by the voters in Denmark.
  3. The Iraqi's voted on a Constitution in 2005. But again, it was a take-it or leave-it proposition. Thus, many Iraqi voters felt that they really did not like the one offered, but voted on it because it was better than not having any Constitution.
  4. And more recently, Turkey and Kenya had Constitutional referenda.

And there have been proposals for unions, all that would require a Constitution:

  1. a United States of East Africa as reported very ably by the Economist.
  2. And a board game entrepreneur promoting a vision of a United States of Africa.
  3. And lastly, uniting the entire world.

I proposed a Constitution Construction Kit, more later, which brings in the idea of workflows, nesting workflows. Lastly, the ontology for legal affairs, or computer representations of legal knowledge, help a constitutional court or a Supreme Court deciding whether an act obeys the Constitution. And it helps us simulate.

WorkFlow

An insurance company claim system exemplifies a business work flow. The insurance company decides that a claim under $1000.00 is handled and decided by a type A employee. Those above that amount are preprocessed by the type B employee. But a committee of seven makes the final decision and five out of the seven of these employees are needed to approve the claim. In either case, the claim is escallated to the president in three days if a decision is not made.

The workflow diagram is shown below.

The workflow starts when someone submits a form. In the example, the policy holder submits a claim. And one might have a workflow starting at a certain time, ensuring that a person execute a backup and that someone verify the backup was successful. Different individuals might fill out forms in a certain order. That is the electrical engineer reviews the plan and then the mechanical engineer reviews the form containing the plan. And in business, small groups might approve or vote on an activity. For example, an investment committee might have to approve a major capital project. Thus, the work flow system would have to count the number of positive and negative votes. And as we see above, based upon the results at each step, or the contents of a form, the system wil determine which new state go into. Thus, whether we go into State A or State B is determined by the amount of the claim. Whether a commitee votes in one way or another determines what happens to the large claim. And time passing will cause us to go into an "escalation" state.

Some workflows, based on a Petri net model allow parallel activities. Thus, the Electrical Engineer and the mechanical Engineer can review the document at the same time. When both give their approval, it goes on to the next state

The workflow system will have things happen as we transition from state to state. An email might go out, a credit card might be charged, or a letter might be printed and sent via conventional postal mail. It is not difficult to conceive of a workflow system activating a solenoid controlling a valve in our chemical plant at a certain state.

There are commercial workflow systems, where a computer professional enters the equivalent of the dataflow in some language or in XML, perhaps to be discussed in a future thoughtful Thursday.

Political Work Flows

The passing of a bill shows how workflows can model something in a Constitution. At the risk of being chauvanistic, I will use the United States Constitution, specifically the passing of a money bill, which our Constitution specifies must start with the House of Representatives.

We start with the House, which from the Constitution itself, simply emits the bill with no explanation or specification of how (more about that later). From there, as many readers will know the bill has to approved by the Senate and then on to the President, who may sign, vetoe or do neither.

  1. Awaiting Senate Approval, after the House approves the bill
  2. Awaiting the President's Signature, after the Senate approves the Bill
  3. Depending upon what the president does, it may go to a termination state. One of these is obviously Law Passed. If the President does nothing, in ten days, and Congress is in Session, the bill is considered passed. (I recall reading that Cypress Semiconductor set up work flows where if someone who was supposed to approve something simply failed to do something about, it went on as if they did approval. This prevented someone from having to go chase a document that was on a procrastinator's desk.)

    However, should Congress ahve adjourned, then the bill is considered failed-- a pocket vetoe.

  4. The rest of the flow is an override steps, going back to the House of Representatives, where the bill originated and then to the Senate if 2/3 override.

Nested workflows and Harel's State Charts

Simply, at any transition, there can be a whole workflow embedded. The Constitution has a simple transition from the start of a bill to it passing the house and awaiting the Senate to approve it. But that is a whole workflow of a Representative bsumbmitting the bill and being assigned to a Committee and being scheduled for debate and being ammended and finally have a vote of the full house.

At any point in that time, the House could adjourn to be reelected in its two year cycle, in which case the bill would fail. At any point in the process of the Senate reviewing and voting for a a Bill, the Congress could adjourn for a new session after new elections.

An additional feature is that one can model a flow from the superstate. Thus, when the HOUSE or SENATE adjourns that kills any bills in process. We can show that as a single arrow. The alternative would be draw an arrow from every substate of the HOUSE or SENATE to the dead state for adjournment as below.

One could also think of the boxes as a dataflow diagram--and I will have to consider this later in the discussion of the Constitutional Construction Kit, below.

State charts add to a simple state diagram, the ability to group states into logical superstates. Sometimes these are called HIGRAPH's for Hierarchical Graphs. State tables are often used in modelling computer software embedded in device. In avionics software, "in all airborne states, when yellow handle is pulled, seat will be ejected." And these need to handle several things going on at the same times. In a modern electronic wristwatch, the stopwatch might be in a state, the date setting might be in another state, and the normal watch itself is in a state. If one is in the process of setting the stopwatch or using the stopwatch, one might hit the button to go to the regular display state. When the owner then clicks a button to go back to the stopwatch, we may want to leave them wherever they were, perhaps in the process of setting the stop watch or the stopwatch is clicking off times, rather than going back to a start state. Dr. Harel did a masterful writing in his article using his own Citizen's electronic wristwatch as the example.

These features are not as relevant in political state tables. However, I can think of one example. In some states in some circumstances, one can appeal an order in the lower court to the upper court, even if the lower court has not finished with the case. Let's say one is getting ready to try one's case. The Judge rules that your star witness cannot testify because you made a spelling error in sending his name in. You could then request the appeals court to review that decision and if whatever happened, the case would go back to the lower court in same place as it was left off, perhaps with allowing that person to testify.

The Constitutional Construction Kit (CCK)

Every couple of decades, the United States engages in Regime Change with the nation somehow selecting a new Constitution. We saw it in Philipines in the 1900's, Roosevelt writing a new Constitution for Haiti new Constitutions for Germany and Japan after World War II, and of course much later, a new Constitution for IRAQ. Whether the United States will do this again is a subject ripe for speculation, but not in this blog.

In simulating a Constitution, unlike working with a business, one has to allow the particpatnts or members of a body to create a new workflow.

In the United States Constitution, Article One, Section Five, "Each House may determine the Rule of its Proceedings." We also have to allow various ways for individuals to be come members of bodies. That is we have to provide for elections appointments and random selections. The latter is only used today for juries., It is a very viable way of doing participatory democracy, sortion. Thus, if one were modelling the United States Constitution, we would see a workflow from each of the House and Senate to create or modify the workflow for creating and passing bills.

This concept is in other countrie's constitutions. For example, the Iraqi Constitution has the Council of Representatives cratings its bylaw for its rule. And article 93 designates that the Council chooses how the courts will be run and how judges and other officials are selected. Bahama Constitution Article 55, provides that each House of its legislature can regulates its procedure and make rules of procedures. in the Iranian Constitution, Article 62(2) specifies that the law will set how their legislature is elected. And like the United States, in Iraq and the Bahamas, the legislatures determines their own procedure.

And if there is an election, we need to provide for the rules of that election. And who resolves disputes. And in Secton Four, both State Legislatures and Congress can change the Workflow for the election of representatives.

A workflow has roles. For example, one specifies that an Insurance Adjustor of Rank Two or Higher can prepare a claim of over $1000.00 for Committee Decision. And we have a role called Member of Claim Approval Process. In a business workflow, one generally assumes this process is outside the workflow diagram. That is, one does not have a workflow to hire or promote a person to Insurance Adjustor Rank Two. And we certainly don't have the computer program handle those people authorized to change that procedure approving the decision to change it. (The appropriate manager would simply tell the computer professional to go change it ....) But in a Constitution Construction Kit we need all these roles. The people who elected to the House or Senate can change these workflows, as can the State legislatures. And our CCK must model these.

Approval Process

Our Constitution Construction Kit (CCK) will allow multiple parametric Constitutions to be prepared, and a vote to be conducted. Thus before the process starts, there has to be an optimized funcction. This will be a natural generalization of the requirement for ratification. For example, our constitution required nine out of thirteen states to vote. The Iraqi Constitution required n-2 out of the n provinces to approve by a majority vote. There are two obvious extensions. One can find the constitution that can get the majority vote in the most states or provinces. Or one can find the constitution that maximizes the vote in the province or state that gave the nth lowest approval percentage. Thus, if constitution A got votes in provinces:

33, 45 , 47, 49, 57, 58, 62

and constitution B got these votes:

22, 43, 49, 60, 62, 68, 70

If n were three, Constitution B would win as its third lowest vote were 49. But if n were only two, Constitution A would win. (Thus, one can see the importance of specifying the ratification procedure in advance.)

And if we had chosen in advance to look for the Constitution that had the most provinces with a majority in favor, Constitution Two would win as four states had a majority.

An ontology for constitutions

An ontology is a way of organizing knowledge, where there are links between various concepts. Several groups, notably in the Netherlands, are developing ontologies for legal concepts. One of these is the LKIF-Core Ontology, funded by the European Union.

Organizations, Artifacts, and the Purposes they serve. More specific to law, might be Statement, Declarations and Assertions and Document, as a bearer of Statements. The LKIF also has NORMATIVE statements such as prohibitions. They include obligations, allowance, obligations. Thus, a penal code might be defined as a Document containing prohibitions. Our group will also include classifications, so we can say that all persons who meet a condition are permitted to or required to do.

Thus the United States First Amendment giving freedom of speech would state that a particular ORGANIZATION (congress), could not contain a PROHIBITION of a particular SPEECH ACT. (The capitalized things are core concepts in the LKIF).

An ontology for constitutions would allow the parties to propose and vote on the following:

  1. How are people chosen for officer positions or to be a member of a named ORGANIZATION? I identified three of these: election, appointment and sortition.

    I deal with elections first; these are so much in the mind of the average person about the purpose of the typical constitution. Which ORGANIZATION if any can provide further clarification? Are there conditional rules if the above fail or have controversy? The United States Constitution specifies these three of these in its Article Two on choosing the President. We see that the legislature sets the rules for appointing electors. It provides that a majority vote is selecting. It also provides for a default ROLE for the House of Representatives and Senate if there is a controversy over the election of a member.

  2. The classifications of permissible persons must be specified for both those doing the voting or electing. Usually a constitution will state the CLASSIFICATION. For example, the United States Constitution specifies the familiar (to Americans) requirement that president be thirty five years old and a natural-born citizen. It also specifies requirements for the "Electors:" they are not a Senator, Representative or a person holding"an office of trust or profit under the United States."

    Or it may delegate it as in Article 47, Third section of the Iraq Constitution It states, "A law shall regulate the requirement for the candidate [for Council of Representatives, the voter and all that is connected with elections."

    As mentioned earlier, representatives can be specify that other organizations are chosen randomly from certain groups. The only example of this in the United States Constitution is juries, and even here the choosing process is not specified. However, many have written about Sortition. Ernest Callenbach and Michael Phillips proposed that the United States House of Representatives be chosen randomly from the people. Brian Martin proposes a network of decision making groups, which he terms demarchy. He does not propose a specific "constitution" for this network or a method of developing one, mentioning "second order" bodies to "adjudicate on how demarchy is supposed to be work." Paul Woodruff discusses how the Greeks implemented this idea. They had several mechanisms include a "Council of 500," "judges" and the election of experts for particular purposes.

    Most constitutions also provide procedure for the appointment of specific officers. (See Section Two, Clause Two of the United States Constitution which provides for the appointment of officials such as ambassadors, judges and others with "advice and consent" of two thirds of the Senate.)

  3. prohibitions or grants of specific powers. E. G. Congress can pass a law on any of the following subjects, as given in Section Eight of Article One.
  4. Certain acts require certain percentages or other functions of one or more groups. An example from the United States Constitution are that 66% of the ORGANIZATION, Senate, must approve a treaty, a type of DOCUMENT.
  5. Obviously, one needs the mechanics for A Constitutional PROHIBITION. The Constitutional Court could be a workflow as a step on a law before it is approved. Or it could be as part of a workflow for resolving "CASES AND CONTROVERSIE's."
  6. I note that the Estrella project has put its ontology onto the World Wide Web under the GNU Open Source license. Thus, I will be able to build upon it.

References

  1. Boer, A. Winkels, R., Hoekstra, R and Van Engles, “Knowledge management for Legislative Drafting in an International Setting” In Legal Knowledge and Information Systems. Jurix 2003: The Sixteenth Annual Conference (Amsterdam) IOS Press 91-100
  2. Boer, A., Di Bello, M., van den Berg, K., Estrella, European Project for Standardised Transparent Representations in order to Extend Legal Accessability, Deliverable 1.1, Specificfication of the Legal Knowledge Interchange Format, IST 2004 027655
  3. Harel, David, "StateCharts: A Visual Formalism for Complex Systems" Science of Computer Programming Volume Eight, 1987, 231 to 274. See http://www.wisdom.weizmann.ac.il/~dharel/SCANNED.PAPERS/Statecharts.pdf
  4. Sanminiatelli, M. \fIItalians Vote in Massive Reform Referendum\fR Yahoo News, Associated Press can be found at http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory?id=2114939
  5. Yunker, James, A New Vision of Federal World Government, University Press of America, 2007