Wednesday, July 14, 2010

Backfire

Political scientists have discovered that many individuals will dig in their heels when presented with facts contradicting their opinions. They call this backfire. That is when those who have entrenched beliefes and are given facts that say their beliefs are "objectively, provably false" they will entrench themselves even deeper. NPR Talk of the Nation just discussed this last Tuesday on 2011 and discussed various conspiracy theories and "Voodoo History" such as 9/11 or OBama was not legally born in the United States as is required for the United States Presidency.

Now, the question for this blog is whether backfire creates more of a problem for representative democracy or participatory democracy. Mr. Milbank suggests that many voters view democracy as a team sport--they want their team to win regardless of the facts. This is different from buying a refrigerator. If Mr. Milbank is correct, perhaps people will not think that they want the health reform to succeed or fail because they are democrats or republicans, they just want America to have the best health plan. That would mean that putting the health care plans up for referendum would do better than letting the representatives hash it out. Although backfire was a problem for both self-identified liberals and conservatives, the conservatives had more problems adjusting their beliefs after a correction.

Mr. Milbank pointed out that we have wonderful services like FactCheck and PolitFact, but people who are shown up by one of these services just attack the service.

For future Thoughtful Thursdays:

Brendan Nyhan, "When Corrections Fail: The Persistence of Political Misperceptions" June 2010 issue of Journal of Political Behavior

Monday, July 12, 2010

Iraq Assassinations

Iraq has been a victim of assassinations aimed at high level officials, particularly representatives of the Iraquiya party which has the most seats in the recent elections. This is in contrast to a relatively low level of violence in Iraq. One advantage of a participatory democracy system is the deemphasis or zero high-level targets for this type of rage and evil. a Participatory Democracy system would have to spend less money on Secret Service (or the equivalent) protection.

Source: "Killers Stalk Politicians as Iraq Seeks Government" New York Times Thursday July First 2010, Page A4,

Sunday, July 11, 2010

Switzerland Direct Democracy

I assume everyone here has heard of Switzerland's Practice of using Referenda. I found a very well written very information and concise explanation of the options Swiss Citizens have to practice Direct Democracy. from Switzerland.com. And I suspect that we all know that Switzerland has banking secrecy adn Washington was trying to get the names of people who had swiss bank accounts but did not pay their taxes, tax cheats and evaders. I just learned that there was concern that this would go before the Swiss people in a referendum.

Friday, July 9, 2010

Rich Strategic mortgage defaulters

Seeking Alpha documented that the wealthy are most likely to Welch on their mortgage when they could in fact pay their mortgage. Twenty Three Percent of luxury home mortgages are over three months overdue! This is much more than conventional homes.

And eight percent of current mortgages are no-documentation or "liar" loans.

Thursday, July 8, 2010

Robert Dahl, Procedural Democracy, Thoughtful Thursday

"Procedural Democracy" by Dr. Robert Dahl which appeared in Democracy, Liberty and Equality and Contemporary Political Philosophy--the latter which shows up in Google Books.

What procedures are necessary for democracy and who must have a vote or right to particpate?

Certainly, we need decisions to be made! But there are two types of decisions, rules and individuals. In the doctrine of rule by law, everything is a law. We have a tax code? In rule by sortition, each case is decided independently and we rely on the law of large numbers to remove the arbitrariness and to achieve some measure of consistency? If we always take a random sample of 1000 people and we present them with similar individuals This also resolves Dr. Dahl's claim that "equally valid claims justify equal shares." This is a tautology--Dr. Dahl admits it is close to one. we should not automatically decide cases in favor of a particular ethnic group. We claim that each person's claim is equally valid even though one person is from ethnic group A and the other from ethnic group Q. A bigot would say that group A is inferior to group Q and therefore, their claims are not equally valid and it is perfectly fine to rule against the first person solely because they are of ethnic group A.

And the binding decisions should be made by the members, directly or indirectly. And the members can delegate the rights to make decisons. Most of the times this is for convenience. That is the justification for representative democracy rather than having all decisions made by referendum. It is also the justification for administrative boards such as the Environmental Protection Administration at the Federal level or a planning board in a municipatlity. Many nations have generated certain powers to their constitutional court. This allows certain principles to be preserved, typically human or civil rights issues.

And Dr. Dahl said that citizens should have the right to set the agenda as well as vote. That is a major limitation in current systems, and one on which invention, research and implementation should be done to allow individuals together to create complicated legal codes. And of course, a sortition-based approach resolves this problem, as each case rather than a set of cases as defined by a law is brought individually.

Now who gets to vote, or from what pool do we choose the sortition jurors, or otherwise participate in the decison process. Should everyone affected by the decisions of an organization have a right to vote on them. We certainly have voluntary associations. They either invite and admit their own members--some cooperatives work that way. Before one can buy a share and live there, the coop board must screen you. Other organizations have non-discretionary admission process--if you pay the fee, you are a member and have a vote or professional organizations like the American Society of Mechanical Engineers or Institute of Electrical Engineers require a degree of other indicia that you are an engineer. They have associate members who pay dues but have limited voting rights (IEEE Constitution, online). The American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) has a similar arrangement where members must have eight years of experience as an engineer. This lack of democracy is not a major concern, an associate member aggrieved simply does not renew the folowing year.

Schumpeter suggested that every "demos" can define itself. Thus ethnic group A can govern and simply define that members of ethnic group B have no right to vote. That is what happened to the Cherokee Nation. John Marshall said that the Cherokee were in "a state of pupilage" and the relation "resembles that of a ward to his guardian" and he remarked that should a foreign prince attack the Cherokee, it would be considered as would any other invasion of the United States. Alexander Tocqueville watched one of the Choctaw removals-- he asked one of the Native Americans why they were leaving. He said to be free of American laws. So here is an example of a demos defining itself to affect those who got no vote. (Many Native Americans became United States Citizen by assimilating or by serving in the armed forces. And even after the 1924 law granting citizenship, it was not until 1948 that all had the right to vote.)

Related is the right of the conqueror to set up courts and the like. This was establidged in Hefferman vs. Porter which said that a Union military commander could set up a court in Tennessee. And these decisions would be binding.

Locke and Rosseau said that the Constitution must be approved unanimously, but then laws could be passed by only an approval. But unanimously by whom?

and of course, there is a question of Children. And there are others who might sufficiently developmentally disabled as to not understand the voting process. One might argue that all such wards would vote as their guardians or caregivers directed. But effectively that happens now. Each State is given representation in the House of Representatives proportional to their population. Thus the votes of those groups who have lots of children have more power in Congress than those groups that choose to practice more birth control. Would there thus be any harm in allowing young children or developmentally-disabled adults to vote, knowing full well that their parents would be pulling the lever "on their behalf."

And if we allow exclusion of the incompetents, is that a slippery slope to literacy tests for voting or to become a citizen?

And what about tourists? They are subject to the laws--but do not get a vote. Obviously in conventional elections, where the election is for a four year term, it is not fair to allow a person who just happens to be in the country that week to vote. And in a participatory democracy, it is in appropriate to allow a one-week tourist to vote on a plan to build a nuclear power plant whose construction would start well after they left and would exist for many years afterward. However, for continuous expenditures, there is no problem. Each person gets to cast their vote for the public expenditures on entitlement programs, the police department, etc. they prefer. They also enter their preference of tax rates. They enter all manners of preferences as to numbers, how many minutes busses can idle, the number of years in jail a burglar should receive, etc. All these nubmers are combined by a median to determine the rate. As new voters become competent, e. g., when they reach eighteen eyars of age, their number is included in the median calculation. When they die or lose their voting rights as a felon, their numbers are subtracted. There is no problem for the tourist. They could enter their numbers upon entry to the country and it gets subtracted when they leave at the end of their one-week vacation. If medians are used, if the tourists are very far from the "real citizens," then their numbers would not have much of an effect.

And there is a local question. Non-residents pay property tax. Non-residents pay income tax. New York City has a non-resident income tax. Yet these people do not have a vote. The owner of a business in a state is subject to the laws of that state--yet they certainly have no vote in that State And the blog raised the question, should a person possessing property in multiple states or cities have a vote in each, while a person ownly owning one home only get to vote in one locality. Dr. Bailey proposed many mechanisms in his proposed constitution for a future country that helps address these issues. A person possessing property or a business owner could file a Lindahl tax or a Thompson insurance to express their concerns. Yet since this costs them money, and would cost more money to do it inn three cities than one, it does not give unfair advantage to them.

And states and countries base their residency upon address or abode. This can be a permanent location to which one intends to return, even though one never set foot there. Thus, assume A is working in New York State. A's family moves from Nevada to Tennessee. A never was in Tennessee. But A does intend to join his loving family upon completin of his work project. A is a resident of Tennessee and can vote absentee out of Tennessee. And does a person who is in a state for several years to complete a project a resident? And we hear about countries setting up special polling places in the United States for their citizens who are displaced here.

And immigration is an issue. I proposed a system of panels and allocating of quota by median. A simple rule that might be added is, Noone is admitted into the country as an immigrant who does not receive fifty percent vote from a sortition panel.

Dahl mentioned that Rosseau considered Geneva and Venice as "true republics" but the demos was only a minority. In Venice it was 0.1% of the population.

For Future Thoughtful Thursdays:

"In the Courts of the Conqueror: The Ten Worst Indian Law Cases Ever Decided" by Walter R. Echo-Hawk.

Tuesday, July 6, 2010

Casino Economics

Cantor Fitzgerald, a famous bond and derivatives house, just set up a casino in Las Vegas. They are applying the same techniques that are used in setting up derivatives. It allows people to bet on sports results while the game is being played. This is different where people had to place their bets before the event started. I heard of the Casino Economics. Business Week had a famous article on Casino Society, that says that much of modern finance is nothing more than a game devoid of economic substance.

Thursday, July 1, 2010

Initiatives, Thoughtful Thursday

Shaun Bowler, Todd Donovan, "Measuring the Effect of Direct Democracy on State Policy: Not All Initiatives Are Created Equal" State Politics and Policy Quarterly Volume Four, Number Three, Fall 2004, pages 345 to 363.

States vary in

  1. how difficult it is to get an initiative on the ballot.
    1. Some states simply need more signatures
    2. there is little time to get the signatures. I. E. the people have to collect the signatures, e. g. between March Seventh and April Fourteenth
    3. One needs a specific number of signatures in each county. In other words, it is not enough just to get 100,000 signatures. For example, one must get at least 2000 in at least half the counties.
    4. Some states don't accept initiatives in all areas.
  2. And the Legislature may have some power:
    1. Worse in some states, the legislature can simply repeal the initiave by voting against it, sometimes immediately.
    2. States restrict initiatives to one item
    3. States limit the substance of the initiative
    4. some states only allow the people to vote on ordinary statues and not amend their constitution

As one would expect, these affect the number of initiatives per year. 1.58 versus 0.50. And the second set of restrictions is correlated highly (0.74) with the first set. And the states that added an initiative in the 1900's have initiatives easy to get on the ballot; the legislature cannot undo these. Other states added initiatives later but here the legislature can easily reverse the effect and worse, and they are hard to get on the ballot in the first place.

Drs. Bowler and Donovan looked at how closely the State abortion policy matched public opinion. The states that made it easier to get an initiative on the ballot had a policy that closer matched public opinion on this controversial question.

States that frequently used the initiative and states that made it easier to enact initiative and keep them in place, had stronger campaign finance policies.

And states that had a progressive initiative policy were more likely to have term limits on their state legislatures and to have stricter ones. Twenty-one states have legislative term limits. Twenty of these hd initiative policies! (I note that the Federal Government has no initiative and no legislative term limits.)

The point of this article is that making the initiative easy and not restricting it will have real effects on how it is used and will make the laws of the state reflect what the citizens want and not what the legislators want. Drs. Bowler and Donovan criticize earlier studies for simply looking at the initiative as an either-or proposition (a dummy variable in regression terms)--that is the point of the article.